UPStrat-MAFA (Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies using MAcroseismic and FAult Sources) is an European Commission Project in the area of “Developing knowledge-based disaster prevention policies” whose primary aim is to produce a seismic risk analysis for disaster prevention strategies.

Main steps of the project are:

Seismic hazard assessment

Seismic risk assessment

Disaster prevention strategies

 

Seismic hazard assessment

1.  Forecast damage scenarios using observed and synthetic macroseismic fields to simulate intensity shake maps, given the parameters on the location and intensity of an earthquake;

2. Evaluate the seismic hazard at a site using macroseismic fields and fault sources; in this case, the seismic histories at the site will be integrated by synthetic effects deduced using 3D EXSIM finite-fault ground-motion stochastic simulations;

Seismic risk assessment

1.  Collect urban-scale vulnerability information on building and network systems;

2.  Evaluate urban-scale exposure by defining synthetic indices and by the use of GIS tools;

3.  Define urban risk, convolving the shaking ground-motion parameters at the site with the vulnerability and exposure;

Disaster prevention strategies

1.  Define disaster prevention strategies based on the level of risk (typologies, schools, strategic buildings, critical infrastructures; and so on) and based on an education management information system linked to information about areas and population groups that are prone to particular kinds of emergencies.

 

A few study cases will be considered, with all of the data and procedures implemented at an urban scale. It is intended to reach harmonisation at the urban risk level, merging the best practices and available data from the selected state members (Italy, Portugal, Spain and Iceland).